Survey Finds Massachusetts Residents Pessimistic About Economy

SPRINGFIELD, MA (November 17, 2008)…Massachusetts residents are doubtful that the national economy will improve over the next 12 months, and three out of five say they will spend less money on gifts this holiday season, according to the latest survey from the Western New England College Polling Institute.

More than half of the 602 adults who responded to the telephone survey said they expect the national economy to stay about the same or get worse over the next 12 months. Ninety-five percent rated the economy as “fairly bad” or “very bad.” The poll, conducted November 6-13, has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percent.

“Given that the economy is the primary topic of discussion in the media, around the water cooler, and at home, it isn’t surprising people are concerned and treading cautiously,” said Denine Northrup, Ph.D., co-director of the Western New England College Polling Institute.

Residents also were pessimistic that their personal finances will improve any time soon. Twenty-eight (28) percent said they expected their personal financial position to get better over the next 12 months, while 56 percent said it would stay about the same and 15 percent said it would get worse.

That pessimism may be breeding caution about the upcoming holiday season. Sixty percent said they plan to spend less on gifts this year compared to last year, while 34 percent said they would spend the same amount and only 4 percent said they would spend more.

The outlook for holiday buying varied, however, by gender, age and income. Sixty-five percent of women said they would spend less, compared to 55 percent of men. Seventy-one percent of adults ages 30 to 49 said they would spend less, compared to 62 percent of adults ages 50 to 64 and 47 percent of adults 65 and older. Families with annual household incomes between $35,000 and $100,000 were more likely to say they would spend less compared to those with household incomes below $35,000 or above $100,000.

“As our awareness and concern due to uncertainty is heightened, individuals in the middle income bracket particularly are becoming much more cautious about overextending with their personal finances,” said Northrup, an associate professor of psychology at Western New England College.

Even with the gloomy outlook, residents expressed optimism that President-elect Barack Obama will be able to tackle the nation’s economic problems. Seventy-six percent of adults and 75 percent of registered voters said they were very or somewhat confident about Obama’s ability to make the right decisions about the economy.

Partisan divisions, however, still linger from the recent election. Among registered voters who identified themselves as Democrats, 94 percent said they were very or somewhat confident about Obama’s abilities, while the same was true for only 27 percent of Republican voters. Seventy-six percent of independent voters said they were very or somewhat confident that Obama would be able to make the right decisions about the economy.

The poll also found that Massachusetts residents are changing their spending habits in response to the economic downturn:

• Twenty-nine percent said they had delayed making a major purchase for their household, such as a computer or an appliance. That was the case for about one-third of those with annual household incomes below $100,000 per year, but was true for only 16 percent of those with household incomes of $100,000 or more.
  
• Twenty-three percent said they had delayed or canceled plans to buy a new car.
  
• Twenty-eight percent said they had delayed or canceled buying a home or making home improvements.
  
• More than half – 53 percent of respondents – said they were eating at restaurants less frequently, and the same was true for about two-thirds of those with household incomes between $35,000 and $100,000.
  
• Fifty-eight percent said they have changed the way their money is saved or invested. Men were more likely than women to alter their savings or investment strategies (63 percent to 54 percent). Nearly two-thirds of residents with household incomes of $100,000 or higher said they have changed how they save or invest their money.

The Western New England College Polling Institute conducted telephone interviews with 602 adults ages 18 and older drawn from across Massachusetts using random-digit-dialing November 6-13. The sample yielded 548 adults who said they were registered to vote in Massachusetts. Unless otherwise noted, figures cited are based on the statewide sample of all adults. The data were weighted to reflect the adult population of Massachusetts by gender, race and age. Complete results of the poll are available online at www.wnec.edu/news.

Established in 2005, the Western New England College Polling Institute conducts research on issues of importance to Massachusetts residents and communities. The Institute provides the College’s faculty and students with valuable opportunities to participate in public opinion research.

Election Night: History in a Blur

By Tim Vercellotti

NEW YORK, NY (November 5, 2008)…Whether or not your preferred candidates won, it’s fair to say Election Night was a good night for pollsters.

While the nation is still wrapping up its vote count, it looks like Barack Obama’s margin of victory over John McCain will be in the five- to six-point range. That’s pretty close to the predictions of many of the final pre-election polls.

There were also few surprises at the state level. The states that were expected to be close were (Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina, for example). And the swing states that Obama was expected to pick up actually went his way (Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia). The results put to rest, at least for now, nagging doubts over whether survey respondents were being entirely truthful about voting for an African-American candidate.

Working with the CBS News decision desk did, indeed, provide a front row seat on history. Given the pace of Election Night, however, history passed by in a blur for much of the evening. The decision desk had to call the presidential race in each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia, 35 Senate races, 11 gubernatorial races, key House races and assorted ballot measures. There wasn’t much time for me to pause and reflect on what was happening.

But there was a moment, shortly after 10 p.m., when it became clear that once the Pacific states came in Obama would clinch the presidency. Obama’s margin in the exit polls in California, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington was large enough that we would be able to project those states for him when those polls closed at 11 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. As I got word from the decision desk and prepared to send the information to the rest of the news staff, I felt a sense of excitement about what was about to happen. And once the polls closed and CBS News called the race for Obama, activity on the decision desk stopped for a moment as we watched the broadcast and took it all in.

A few minutes later my wife, who had canvassed in the rain in New Hampshire for Obama and made countless phone calls to undecided voters from our kitchen, called to savor the moment. We talked for a few minutes, but then it was back to work. There were still several close states in the presidential race and some key Senate contests to be called. History would have to wait, at least until the morning.

Waiting for Tonight's Returns

By Tim Vercellotti

NEW YORK, NY (November 4, 2008)…After several election rehearsals, tonight we get to work with the real thing – exit poll data and election returns.

Exit poll data give us insights we can’t find anywhere else. Follow-up surveys after Election Day typically yield inflated estimates of turnout, either because active voters are more likely to answer surveys, or some non-voters say they have voted to show that they have been good citizens. To understand what happened in an election, there is no substitute for actually being able to stand outside of a polling place to hand a questionnaire to a voter as he or she emerges.

Early voting has complicated the exit poll process somewhat in that it is impractical to sample voters as they leave polling places days or weeks before the election. In states with substantial amounts of early voting the exit poll data will be supplemented with telephone surveys of voters who have already cast ballots.

In states where the candidates enjoy a large lead in pre-election polling, the exit poll data may be enough to call the election. That is what is happening when you see states called right after the polls close in those states. The suspense will come in about seven or eight swing states, where the latest pre-election polls showed the gap between Barack Obama and John McCain was in the single digits or the race was dead even going into today’s voting. Virginia, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Missouri are among the states we will be watching closely tonight.

Barring some sort of election dispute, the exit poll data will be largely forgotten by the public after tonight. But those of us who study politics for a living will be sifting through those results for years to come. The exit polls can help us understand short-term and long-term shifts in political behavior. Did young people turn out in higher numbers? Is one party winning the battle for the allegiance of Hispanic voters? Are white evangelical Christians still influential in some swing states, or is their clout diminishing? Comparing today’s results to previous election cycles, we can get a sense of potential long-term and lasting changes in the electorate.

The 2008 exit poll data also are the starting point for looking ahead to the midterm Congressional elections in 2010 and the next presidential election in 2012. But I am getting ahead of myself here. First we need to see how 2008 unfolds. We don’t have much longer to wait.

Preparing for Election Night at CBS News

By Tim Vercellotti

NEW YORK, NY (November 2, 2008)...While Election Night is not until Tuesday, I have been living and re-living it already for the past couple of days.

I have the privilege of working as a consultant with the decision desk at CBS News on Election Night. I am getting a front row seat on how analysts review exit poll data and early returns to project winners in the races for president, governorships in 11 states, and seats in the Senate and the House of Representatives.

Getting ready to project winners involves months of preparation, including compiling and absorbing hundreds of pages of background material on registration and voting trends in the states, and careful calibrations of statistical models that will be in use on Election Night.

Preparing also consists of conducting Election Night simulations, in which exit poll and voting data arrive in real time, allowing the decision desk to test its models and anticipate conditions on Election Night.

My role is pretty straightforward. Once the decision desk makes projections, I communicate them via e-mail to the rest of the staff at CBS News. In between projections I examine the exit poll data for insights into how a candidate fared among specific groups or in a particular state, then send those findings to the rest of the staff for possible use in the broadcast.

The rehearsals we have had so far reveal just how much care goes into interpreting the data and making projections. The analysts on the decision desk are a seasoned team of CBS News elections and survey experts, as well as some of the top political scientists and political consultants in the survey research field. Getting it right is the top priority while working under deadline pressure that feels real even in the rehearsals. Team members deliberate, re-examine data and assumptions, and check each other before agreeing on a projection.

It is what we political scientists set out to do with our research, although our work unfolds at a much more leisurely pace. You begin with a research question, develop hypotheses based on certain assumptions, test the data against those hypotheses, then examine your results. But you question the results, challenge them, hold them up to experience, and subject them to the review of your peers before reporting what you have found.

On the decision desk, that can happen in minutes. I will be mindful of that the next time I am rushing to finish a conference paper or journal manuscript. Pressure? We academics don’t know the half of it.

Gearing up for the November Survey

We will be entering the field for a post-election telephone survey of Masschusetts voters Nov. 6-14. Hours for polling will be 5 p.m. to 9 p.m. The pay is $8 per hour, and the hours can count toward LBC credit if you make arrangements prior to working on the survey. We will have interviewer training from 7 to 8:30 p.m. Wednesday, Oct. 29, and Thursday, Oct. 30, in Churchill 303. Come join us for a fun activity that brings recognition to the College. For more information, contact Dr. Tim Vercellotti at lvercellotti@wnec.edu or Dr. Denine Northrup at dnorthru@wnec.edu.

2008 Massachusetts Ballot Question Survey

WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COLLEGE POLLING INSTITUTE FINDS VOTERS OPPOSE ELIMINATING STATE INCOME TAX

Survey finds support for decriminalization of marijuana, ban on dog racing in state

SPRINGFIELD, MA (October 10, 2008)…Massachusetts voters overwhelmingly oppose eliminating the state income tax, according to the latest survey from the Western New England College Polling Institute.

The telephone poll of 408 registered voters, conducted September 29 through October 6, found that 62 percent of voters oppose Question 1, a ballot initiative that calls for doing away with the state’s income tax. Twenty-six percent favor the idea, while 12 percent said they are undecided or declined to offer an opinion.

The survey also found:

Voters favor decriminalizing possession of an ounce or less of marijuana, with 62 percent voicing support, 32 percent opposed, and five percent saying they are undecided or declining to offer an opinion.

Voters support banning dog racing in Massachusetts 53 percent to 30 percent, but a sizable number – 17 percent – said they are undecided or declined to offer an opinion.

Voters will decide the questions on November 4. Previous attempts to eliminate the income tax and ban dog racing have failed. The income tax proposal received support from 45 percent of voters in 2002, while the dog racing ban lost narrowly in 2000.

The nature of ballot questions can make the outcome of initiatives hard to predict, said Tim Vercellotti, associate professor of political science and co-director of the Western New England College Polling Institute. “Some voters who express a preference on ballot questions in pre-election surveys don’t always make it that far down the ballot when casting their vote,” Vercellotti said. He noted that 11 percent of voters who cast a ballot in the 2002 gubernatorial race did not vote on the state income tax question in that election.

Question wording also can influence voters’ responses on issues. The Western New England College Polling Institute asked:

“Voters in November also will decide whether Massachusetts should eliminate the state income tax. Supporters of this idea say it will save the average taxpayer $3,600 per year. Opponents of this idea say eliminating the income tax would force state and local government to make deep cuts in services.

Do you support or oppose eliminating the state income tax?”

“After hearing both sides of the issue in the question, voters were less likely to support the idea,” Vercellotti noted. “While eliminating the income tax may have initial appeal when it comes to voters’ pocketbooks, hearing about the potential consequences in terms of services seems to reduce that appeal.”

Opinions about the proposal varied by party identification and education. Democrats opposed the idea 74 percent to 14 percent, while Republicans favored it 42 percent to 36 percent. Independent voters also were opposed by a margin of 70 percent to 22 percent. Voters who have a high school education or less were evenly divided, with 41 percent in favor and 45 percent opposed. Survey respondents who had at least some college opposed the idea 59 percent to 25 percent, while college graduates were opposed 70 percent to 19 percent.

Support for decriminalizing possession of an ounce or less of marijuana also varied across key demographic factors – in this case party identification and age. Democrats and independent voters supported the idea 62 percent to 32 percent. The margin was narrower among Republican voters, who backed the idea 54 percent to 44 percent. The proposal, which will be Question 2 on the November ballot, also drew sizable support from voters under age 65. Voters age 65 and older were evenly split, with 45 percent in favor and 45 percent opposed.

The proposed ban on dog racing in Massachusetts – listed as Question 3 on the ballot – divided voters by party and gender. Democrats supported the ban 62 percent to 27 percent, while 49 percent of Republican and independent voters were in favor and about one-third of each group was opposed. Women were more likely than men to support the ban. Fifty-nine percent of women were in favor, with 22 percent opposed. Male voters were almost evenly split, with 44 percent in favor and 40 percent opposed.

The survey also found a relatively large level of uncertainty about the idea, with 17 percent of voters saying they were undecided or declining to offer an opinion. “A large chunk of the electorate has not yet formed views on this issue,” Vercellotti said. “That suggests there could be some volatility in opinion in this area, with the potential for some swings before Election Day.”

The Western New England College Polling Institute surveyed 449 adults drawn from across Massachusetts using random-digit-dialing between September 29 and October 6. The sample yielded 408 adults who said they were registered to vote in Massachusetts. Unless otherwise noted, figures are based on the statewide sample of registered voters. The data were weighted to reflect the adult population of Massachusetts by gender, race and age.

Established in 2005, the Western New England College Polling Institute conducts research on issues of importance to Massachusetts residents and communities. The Institute provides the College’s faculty and students with valuable opportunities to participate in public opinion research.

2008 Massachusetts Statewide Poll

SURVEY FINDS OBAMA LEADS BY WIDE MARGIN IN MASSACHUSETTS AS VOTERS CITE ECONOMIC CONCERNS

SPRINGFIELD, MA (October 7, 2008)…Democrat Barack Obama holds a comfortable lead over Republican John McCain in Massachusetts four weeks ahead of the November 4 presidential election, according to a new survey from the Western New England College Polling Institute.

The telephone survey of 408 registered voters, conducted September 29 through October 6, found that Obama leads McCain 56 to 37 percent. The survey has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 5 percent.

The economy emerged as the most important issue to voters as they decide whom to support, the survey found. Thirty-eight percent of voters pointed to the economy as their chief concern in choosing a candidate, while 11 percent point to the candidates’ character and 10 percent cited the war in Iraq.

Among voters who cited the economy as their top concern, Obama led McCain 60 to 35 percent. Voters who said they are focusing on the candidates’ character favored Obama over McCain by a much narrower margin of 49 to 42 percent. Voters who pointed to the war in Iraq favor Obama 79 to 19 percent.

“Obama runs strongest when the focus is on the economy or the war, at least when it comes to Massachusetts voters,” said Tim Vercellotti, associate professor of political science and co-director of the Polling Institute. “When the focus shifts to the character of the candidates, McCain closes in. The McCain campaign seems to be well aware of that dynamic, given how they have begun to emphasize Obama’s character in the past few days.”

Obama also benefits from the gender gap that typically favors Democratic candidates when it comes to women voters. The survey found that Obama holds a 23-point lead over McCain among women, 57 to 34 percent. Obama leads McCain among male voters by 15 points, 55 to 40 percent. The Illinois senator also leads among independent voters, who favored Obama over McCain 55 to 40 percent. “With the exception of voters who identified themselves as Republicans, Obama dominated along all demographic lines, including gender, age, and education,” Vercellotti noted.

Voters who said they favor Obama also were slightly more likely than McCain supporters to say they are very sure about their choice, 77 to 72 percent. Twenty-three percent of Obama supporters said they might change their mind before Election Day, compared to 26 percent of McCain supporters. “There is still some fluidity in the race, but probably not enough to affect the outcome.”

The survey also found that Democratic Senator John Kerry holds a commanding lead over his Republican challenger, Jeff Beatty, as Kerry seeks a fifth term in the U.S. Senate. Registered voters favor Kerry over Beatty 60 to 23 percent. Nearly three-quarters of voters said they don’t know who Beatty is, and only 7 percent could offer a favorable or unfavorable view of the candidate. Fifty-three percent of voters said they viewed Kerry favorably, while 35 percent said they view him unfavorably.

The Western New England College Polling Institute surveyed 449 adults drawn from across Massachusetts using random-digit-dialing between September 29 and October 6. The sample yielded 408 adults who said they were registered to vote in Massachusetts. Unless otherwise noted, figures are based on the statewide sample of registered voters. The data were weighted to reflect the adult population of Massachusetts by gender, race, and age.

Established in 2005, the Western New England College Polling Institute conducts research on issues of importance to Massachusetts residents and communities. The Institute provides the College’s faculty and students with valuable opportunities to participate in public opinion research.