By Tim Vercellotti
NEW YORK, NY (November 5, 2008)…Whether or not your preferred candidates won, it’s fair to say Election Night was a good night for pollsters.
While the nation is still wrapping up its vote count, it looks like Barack Obama’s margin of victory over John McCain will be in the five- to six-point range. That’s pretty close to the predictions of many of the final pre-election polls.
There were also few surprises at the state level. The states that were expected to be close were (Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina, for example). And the swing states that Obama was expected to pick up actually went his way (Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia). The results put to rest, at least for now, nagging doubts over whether survey respondents were being entirely truthful about voting for an African-American candidate.
Working with the CBS News decision desk did, indeed, provide a front row seat on history. Given the pace of Election Night, however, history passed by in a blur for much of the evening. The decision desk had to call the presidential race in each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia, 35 Senate races, 11 gubernatorial races, key House races and assorted ballot measures. There wasn’t much time for me to pause and reflect on what was happening.
But there was a moment, shortly after 10 p.m., when it became clear that once the Pacific states came in Obama would clinch the presidency. Obama’s margin in the exit polls in California, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington was large enough that we would be able to project those states for him when those polls closed at 11 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. As I got word from the decision desk and prepared to send the information to the rest of the news staff, I felt a sense of excitement about what was about to happen. And once the polls closed and CBS News called the race for Obama, activity on the decision desk stopped for a moment as we watched the broadcast and took it all in.
A few minutes later my wife, who had canvassed in the rain in New Hampshire for Obama and made countless phone calls to undecided voters from our kitchen, called to savor the moment. We talked for a few minutes, but then it was back to work. There were still several close states in the presidential race and some key Senate contests to be called. History would have to wait, at least until the morning.
Showing posts with label 2008 election. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2008 election. Show all posts
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
Waiting for Tonight's Returns
By Tim Vercellotti
NEW YORK, NY (November 4, 2008)…After several election rehearsals, tonight we get to work with the real thing – exit poll data and election returns.
Exit poll data give us insights we can’t find anywhere else. Follow-up surveys after Election Day typically yield inflated estimates of turnout, either because active voters are more likely to answer surveys, or some non-voters say they have voted to show that they have been good citizens. To understand what happened in an election, there is no substitute for actually being able to stand outside of a polling place to hand a questionnaire to a voter as he or she emerges.
Early voting has complicated the exit poll process somewhat in that it is impractical to sample voters as they leave polling places days or weeks before the election. In states with substantial amounts of early voting the exit poll data will be supplemented with telephone surveys of voters who have already cast ballots.
In states where the candidates enjoy a large lead in pre-election polling, the exit poll data may be enough to call the election. That is what is happening when you see states called right after the polls close in those states. The suspense will come in about seven or eight swing states, where the latest pre-election polls showed the gap between Barack Obama and John McCain was in the single digits or the race was dead even going into today’s voting. Virginia, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Missouri are among the states we will be watching closely tonight.
Barring some sort of election dispute, the exit poll data will be largely forgotten by the public after tonight. But those of us who study politics for a living will be sifting through those results for years to come. The exit polls can help us understand short-term and long-term shifts in political behavior. Did young people turn out in higher numbers? Is one party winning the battle for the allegiance of Hispanic voters? Are white evangelical Christians still influential in some swing states, or is their clout diminishing? Comparing today’s results to previous election cycles, we can get a sense of potential long-term and lasting changes in the electorate.
The 2008 exit poll data also are the starting point for looking ahead to the midterm Congressional elections in 2010 and the next presidential election in 2012. But I am getting ahead of myself here. First we need to see how 2008 unfolds. We don’t have much longer to wait.
NEW YORK, NY (November 4, 2008)…After several election rehearsals, tonight we get to work with the real thing – exit poll data and election returns.
Exit poll data give us insights we can’t find anywhere else. Follow-up surveys after Election Day typically yield inflated estimates of turnout, either because active voters are more likely to answer surveys, or some non-voters say they have voted to show that they have been good citizens. To understand what happened in an election, there is no substitute for actually being able to stand outside of a polling place to hand a questionnaire to a voter as he or she emerges.
Early voting has complicated the exit poll process somewhat in that it is impractical to sample voters as they leave polling places days or weeks before the election. In states with substantial amounts of early voting the exit poll data will be supplemented with telephone surveys of voters who have already cast ballots.
In states where the candidates enjoy a large lead in pre-election polling, the exit poll data may be enough to call the election. That is what is happening when you see states called right after the polls close in those states. The suspense will come in about seven or eight swing states, where the latest pre-election polls showed the gap between Barack Obama and John McCain was in the single digits or the race was dead even going into today’s voting. Virginia, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Missouri are among the states we will be watching closely tonight.
Barring some sort of election dispute, the exit poll data will be largely forgotten by the public after tonight. But those of us who study politics for a living will be sifting through those results for years to come. The exit polls can help us understand short-term and long-term shifts in political behavior. Did young people turn out in higher numbers? Is one party winning the battle for the allegiance of Hispanic voters? Are white evangelical Christians still influential in some swing states, or is their clout diminishing? Comparing today’s results to previous election cycles, we can get a sense of potential long-term and lasting changes in the electorate.
The 2008 exit poll data also are the starting point for looking ahead to the midterm Congressional elections in 2010 and the next presidential election in 2012. But I am getting ahead of myself here. First we need to see how 2008 unfolds. We don’t have much longer to wait.
Sunday, November 2, 2008
Preparing for Election Night at CBS News
By Tim Vercellotti
NEW YORK, NY (November 2, 2008)...While Election Night is not until Tuesday, I have been living and re-living it already for the past couple of days.
I have the privilege of working as a consultant with the decision desk at CBS News on Election Night. I am getting a front row seat on how analysts review exit poll data and early returns to project winners in the races for president, governorships in 11 states, and seats in the Senate and the House of Representatives.
Getting ready to project winners involves months of preparation, including compiling and absorbing hundreds of pages of background material on registration and voting trends in the states, and careful calibrations of statistical models that will be in use on Election Night.
Preparing also consists of conducting Election Night simulations, in which exit poll and voting data arrive in real time, allowing the decision desk to test its models and anticipate conditions on Election Night.
My role is pretty straightforward. Once the decision desk makes projections, I communicate them via e-mail to the rest of the staff at CBS News. In between projections I examine the exit poll data for insights into how a candidate fared among specific groups or in a particular state, then send those findings to the rest of the staff for possible use in the broadcast.
The rehearsals we have had so far reveal just how much care goes into interpreting the data and making projections. The analysts on the decision desk are a seasoned team of CBS News elections and survey experts, as well as some of the top political scientists and political consultants in the survey research field. Getting it right is the top priority while working under deadline pressure that feels real even in the rehearsals. Team members deliberate, re-examine data and assumptions, and check each other before agreeing on a projection.
It is what we political scientists set out to do with our research, although our work unfolds at a much more leisurely pace. You begin with a research question, develop hypotheses based on certain assumptions, test the data against those hypotheses, then examine your results. But you question the results, challenge them, hold them up to experience, and subject them to the review of your peers before reporting what you have found.
On the decision desk, that can happen in minutes. I will be mindful of that the next time I am rushing to finish a conference paper or journal manuscript. Pressure? We academics don’t know the half of it.
NEW YORK, NY (November 2, 2008)...While Election Night is not until Tuesday, I have been living and re-living it already for the past couple of days.
I have the privilege of working as a consultant with the decision desk at CBS News on Election Night. I am getting a front row seat on how analysts review exit poll data and early returns to project winners in the races for president, governorships in 11 states, and seats in the Senate and the House of Representatives.
Getting ready to project winners involves months of preparation, including compiling and absorbing hundreds of pages of background material on registration and voting trends in the states, and careful calibrations of statistical models that will be in use on Election Night.
Preparing also consists of conducting Election Night simulations, in which exit poll and voting data arrive in real time, allowing the decision desk to test its models and anticipate conditions on Election Night.
My role is pretty straightforward. Once the decision desk makes projections, I communicate them via e-mail to the rest of the staff at CBS News. In between projections I examine the exit poll data for insights into how a candidate fared among specific groups or in a particular state, then send those findings to the rest of the staff for possible use in the broadcast.
The rehearsals we have had so far reveal just how much care goes into interpreting the data and making projections. The analysts on the decision desk are a seasoned team of CBS News elections and survey experts, as well as some of the top political scientists and political consultants in the survey research field. Getting it right is the top priority while working under deadline pressure that feels real even in the rehearsals. Team members deliberate, re-examine data and assumptions, and check each other before agreeing on a projection.
It is what we political scientists set out to do with our research, although our work unfolds at a much more leisurely pace. You begin with a research question, develop hypotheses based on certain assumptions, test the data against those hypotheses, then examine your results. But you question the results, challenge them, hold them up to experience, and subject them to the review of your peers before reporting what you have found.
On the decision desk, that can happen in minutes. I will be mindful of that the next time I am rushing to finish a conference paper or journal manuscript. Pressure? We academics don’t know the half of it.
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