2008 Massachusetts Statewide Poll

SURVEY FINDS OBAMA LEADS BY WIDE MARGIN IN MASSACHUSETTS AS VOTERS CITE ECONOMIC CONCERNS

SPRINGFIELD, MA (October 7, 2008)…Democrat Barack Obama holds a comfortable lead over Republican John McCain in Massachusetts four weeks ahead of the November 4 presidential election, according to a new survey from the Western New England College Polling Institute.

The telephone survey of 408 registered voters, conducted September 29 through October 6, found that Obama leads McCain 56 to 37 percent. The survey has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 5 percent.

The economy emerged as the most important issue to voters as they decide whom to support, the survey found. Thirty-eight percent of voters pointed to the economy as their chief concern in choosing a candidate, while 11 percent point to the candidates’ character and 10 percent cited the war in Iraq.

Among voters who cited the economy as their top concern, Obama led McCain 60 to 35 percent. Voters who said they are focusing on the candidates’ character favored Obama over McCain by a much narrower margin of 49 to 42 percent. Voters who pointed to the war in Iraq favor Obama 79 to 19 percent.

“Obama runs strongest when the focus is on the economy or the war, at least when it comes to Massachusetts voters,” said Tim Vercellotti, associate professor of political science and co-director of the Polling Institute. “When the focus shifts to the character of the candidates, McCain closes in. The McCain campaign seems to be well aware of that dynamic, given how they have begun to emphasize Obama’s character in the past few days.”

Obama also benefits from the gender gap that typically favors Democratic candidates when it comes to women voters. The survey found that Obama holds a 23-point lead over McCain among women, 57 to 34 percent. Obama leads McCain among male voters by 15 points, 55 to 40 percent. The Illinois senator also leads among independent voters, who favored Obama over McCain 55 to 40 percent. “With the exception of voters who identified themselves as Republicans, Obama dominated along all demographic lines, including gender, age, and education,” Vercellotti noted.

Voters who said they favor Obama also were slightly more likely than McCain supporters to say they are very sure about their choice, 77 to 72 percent. Twenty-three percent of Obama supporters said they might change their mind before Election Day, compared to 26 percent of McCain supporters. “There is still some fluidity in the race, but probably not enough to affect the outcome.”

The survey also found that Democratic Senator John Kerry holds a commanding lead over his Republican challenger, Jeff Beatty, as Kerry seeks a fifth term in the U.S. Senate. Registered voters favor Kerry over Beatty 60 to 23 percent. Nearly three-quarters of voters said they don’t know who Beatty is, and only 7 percent could offer a favorable or unfavorable view of the candidate. Fifty-three percent of voters said they viewed Kerry favorably, while 35 percent said they view him unfavorably.

The Western New England College Polling Institute surveyed 449 adults drawn from across Massachusetts using random-digit-dialing between September 29 and October 6. The sample yielded 408 adults who said they were registered to vote in Massachusetts. Unless otherwise noted, figures are based on the statewide sample of registered voters. The data were weighted to reflect the adult population of Massachusetts by gender, race, and age.

Established in 2005, the Western New England College Polling Institute conducts research on issues of importance to Massachusetts residents and communities. The Institute provides the College’s faculty and students with valuable opportunities to participate in public opinion research.