Survey Finds Massachusetts Residents Pessimistic About Economy

SPRINGFIELD, MA (November 17, 2008)…Massachusetts residents are doubtful that the national economy will improve over the next 12 months, and three out of five say they will spend less money on gifts this holiday season, according to the latest survey from the Western New England College Polling Institute.

More than half of the 602 adults who responded to the telephone survey said they expect the national economy to stay about the same or get worse over the next 12 months. Ninety-five percent rated the economy as “fairly bad” or “very bad.” The poll, conducted November 6-13, has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percent.

“Given that the economy is the primary topic of discussion in the media, around the water cooler, and at home, it isn’t surprising people are concerned and treading cautiously,” said Denine Northrup, Ph.D., co-director of the Western New England College Polling Institute.

Residents also were pessimistic that their personal finances will improve any time soon. Twenty-eight (28) percent said they expected their personal financial position to get better over the next 12 months, while 56 percent said it would stay about the same and 15 percent said it would get worse.

That pessimism may be breeding caution about the upcoming holiday season. Sixty percent said they plan to spend less on gifts this year compared to last year, while 34 percent said they would spend the same amount and only 4 percent said they would spend more.

The outlook for holiday buying varied, however, by gender, age and income. Sixty-five percent of women said they would spend less, compared to 55 percent of men. Seventy-one percent of adults ages 30 to 49 said they would spend less, compared to 62 percent of adults ages 50 to 64 and 47 percent of adults 65 and older. Families with annual household incomes between $35,000 and $100,000 were more likely to say they would spend less compared to those with household incomes below $35,000 or above $100,000.

“As our awareness and concern due to uncertainty is heightened, individuals in the middle income bracket particularly are becoming much more cautious about overextending with their personal finances,” said Northrup, an associate professor of psychology at Western New England College.

Even with the gloomy outlook, residents expressed optimism that President-elect Barack Obama will be able to tackle the nation’s economic problems. Seventy-six percent of adults and 75 percent of registered voters said they were very or somewhat confident about Obama’s ability to make the right decisions about the economy.

Partisan divisions, however, still linger from the recent election. Among registered voters who identified themselves as Democrats, 94 percent said they were very or somewhat confident about Obama’s abilities, while the same was true for only 27 percent of Republican voters. Seventy-six percent of independent voters said they were very or somewhat confident that Obama would be able to make the right decisions about the economy.

The poll also found that Massachusetts residents are changing their spending habits in response to the economic downturn:

• Twenty-nine percent said they had delayed making a major purchase for their household, such as a computer or an appliance. That was the case for about one-third of those with annual household incomes below $100,000 per year, but was true for only 16 percent of those with household incomes of $100,000 or more.
  
• Twenty-three percent said they had delayed or canceled plans to buy a new car.
  
• Twenty-eight percent said they had delayed or canceled buying a home or making home improvements.
  
• More than half – 53 percent of respondents – said they were eating at restaurants less frequently, and the same was true for about two-thirds of those with household incomes between $35,000 and $100,000.
  
• Fifty-eight percent said they have changed the way their money is saved or invested. Men were more likely than women to alter their savings or investment strategies (63 percent to 54 percent). Nearly two-thirds of residents with household incomes of $100,000 or higher said they have changed how they save or invest their money.

The Western New England College Polling Institute conducted telephone interviews with 602 adults ages 18 and older drawn from across Massachusetts using random-digit-dialing November 6-13. The sample yielded 548 adults who said they were registered to vote in Massachusetts. Unless otherwise noted, figures cited are based on the statewide sample of all adults. The data were weighted to reflect the adult population of Massachusetts by gender, race and age. Complete results of the poll are available online at www.wnec.edu/news.

Established in 2005, the Western New England College Polling Institute conducts research on issues of importance to Massachusetts residents and communities. The Institute provides the College’s faculty and students with valuable opportunities to participate in public opinion research.

Election Night: History in a Blur

By Tim Vercellotti

NEW YORK, NY (November 5, 2008)…Whether or not your preferred candidates won, it’s fair to say Election Night was a good night for pollsters.

While the nation is still wrapping up its vote count, it looks like Barack Obama’s margin of victory over John McCain will be in the five- to six-point range. That’s pretty close to the predictions of many of the final pre-election polls.

There were also few surprises at the state level. The states that were expected to be close were (Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina, for example). And the swing states that Obama was expected to pick up actually went his way (Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia). The results put to rest, at least for now, nagging doubts over whether survey respondents were being entirely truthful about voting for an African-American candidate.

Working with the CBS News decision desk did, indeed, provide a front row seat on history. Given the pace of Election Night, however, history passed by in a blur for much of the evening. The decision desk had to call the presidential race in each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia, 35 Senate races, 11 gubernatorial races, key House races and assorted ballot measures. There wasn’t much time for me to pause and reflect on what was happening.

But there was a moment, shortly after 10 p.m., when it became clear that once the Pacific states came in Obama would clinch the presidency. Obama’s margin in the exit polls in California, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington was large enough that we would be able to project those states for him when those polls closed at 11 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. As I got word from the decision desk and prepared to send the information to the rest of the news staff, I felt a sense of excitement about what was about to happen. And once the polls closed and CBS News called the race for Obama, activity on the decision desk stopped for a moment as we watched the broadcast and took it all in.

A few minutes later my wife, who had canvassed in the rain in New Hampshire for Obama and made countless phone calls to undecided voters from our kitchen, called to savor the moment. We talked for a few minutes, but then it was back to work. There were still several close states in the presidential race and some key Senate contests to be called. History would have to wait, at least until the morning.

Waiting for Tonight's Returns

By Tim Vercellotti

NEW YORK, NY (November 4, 2008)…After several election rehearsals, tonight we get to work with the real thing – exit poll data and election returns.

Exit poll data give us insights we can’t find anywhere else. Follow-up surveys after Election Day typically yield inflated estimates of turnout, either because active voters are more likely to answer surveys, or some non-voters say they have voted to show that they have been good citizens. To understand what happened in an election, there is no substitute for actually being able to stand outside of a polling place to hand a questionnaire to a voter as he or she emerges.

Early voting has complicated the exit poll process somewhat in that it is impractical to sample voters as they leave polling places days or weeks before the election. In states with substantial amounts of early voting the exit poll data will be supplemented with telephone surveys of voters who have already cast ballots.

In states where the candidates enjoy a large lead in pre-election polling, the exit poll data may be enough to call the election. That is what is happening when you see states called right after the polls close in those states. The suspense will come in about seven or eight swing states, where the latest pre-election polls showed the gap between Barack Obama and John McCain was in the single digits or the race was dead even going into today’s voting. Virginia, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Missouri are among the states we will be watching closely tonight.

Barring some sort of election dispute, the exit poll data will be largely forgotten by the public after tonight. But those of us who study politics for a living will be sifting through those results for years to come. The exit polls can help us understand short-term and long-term shifts in political behavior. Did young people turn out in higher numbers? Is one party winning the battle for the allegiance of Hispanic voters? Are white evangelical Christians still influential in some swing states, or is their clout diminishing? Comparing today’s results to previous election cycles, we can get a sense of potential long-term and lasting changes in the electorate.

The 2008 exit poll data also are the starting point for looking ahead to the midterm Congressional elections in 2010 and the next presidential election in 2012. But I am getting ahead of myself here. First we need to see how 2008 unfolds. We don’t have much longer to wait.

Preparing for Election Night at CBS News

By Tim Vercellotti

NEW YORK, NY (November 2, 2008)...While Election Night is not until Tuesday, I have been living and re-living it already for the past couple of days.

I have the privilege of working as a consultant with the decision desk at CBS News on Election Night. I am getting a front row seat on how analysts review exit poll data and early returns to project winners in the races for president, governorships in 11 states, and seats in the Senate and the House of Representatives.

Getting ready to project winners involves months of preparation, including compiling and absorbing hundreds of pages of background material on registration and voting trends in the states, and careful calibrations of statistical models that will be in use on Election Night.

Preparing also consists of conducting Election Night simulations, in which exit poll and voting data arrive in real time, allowing the decision desk to test its models and anticipate conditions on Election Night.

My role is pretty straightforward. Once the decision desk makes projections, I communicate them via e-mail to the rest of the staff at CBS News. In between projections I examine the exit poll data for insights into how a candidate fared among specific groups or in a particular state, then send those findings to the rest of the staff for possible use in the broadcast.

The rehearsals we have had so far reveal just how much care goes into interpreting the data and making projections. The analysts on the decision desk are a seasoned team of CBS News elections and survey experts, as well as some of the top political scientists and political consultants in the survey research field. Getting it right is the top priority while working under deadline pressure that feels real even in the rehearsals. Team members deliberate, re-examine data and assumptions, and check each other before agreeing on a projection.

It is what we political scientists set out to do with our research, although our work unfolds at a much more leisurely pace. You begin with a research question, develop hypotheses based on certain assumptions, test the data against those hypotheses, then examine your results. But you question the results, challenge them, hold them up to experience, and subject them to the review of your peers before reporting what you have found.

On the decision desk, that can happen in minutes. I will be mindful of that the next time I am rushing to finish a conference paper or journal manuscript. Pressure? We academics don’t know the half of it.