Waiting for Tonight's Returns

By Tim Vercellotti

NEW YORK, NY (November 4, 2008)…After several election rehearsals, tonight we get to work with the real thing – exit poll data and election returns.

Exit poll data give us insights we can’t find anywhere else. Follow-up surveys after Election Day typically yield inflated estimates of turnout, either because active voters are more likely to answer surveys, or some non-voters say they have voted to show that they have been good citizens. To understand what happened in an election, there is no substitute for actually being able to stand outside of a polling place to hand a questionnaire to a voter as he or she emerges.

Early voting has complicated the exit poll process somewhat in that it is impractical to sample voters as they leave polling places days or weeks before the election. In states with substantial amounts of early voting the exit poll data will be supplemented with telephone surveys of voters who have already cast ballots.

In states where the candidates enjoy a large lead in pre-election polling, the exit poll data may be enough to call the election. That is what is happening when you see states called right after the polls close in those states. The suspense will come in about seven or eight swing states, where the latest pre-election polls showed the gap between Barack Obama and John McCain was in the single digits or the race was dead even going into today’s voting. Virginia, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Missouri are among the states we will be watching closely tonight.

Barring some sort of election dispute, the exit poll data will be largely forgotten by the public after tonight. But those of us who study politics for a living will be sifting through those results for years to come. The exit polls can help us understand short-term and long-term shifts in political behavior. Did young people turn out in higher numbers? Is one party winning the battle for the allegiance of Hispanic voters? Are white evangelical Christians still influential in some swing states, or is their clout diminishing? Comparing today’s results to previous election cycles, we can get a sense of potential long-term and lasting changes in the electorate.

The 2008 exit poll data also are the starting point for looking ahead to the midterm Congressional elections in 2010 and the next presidential election in 2012. But I am getting ahead of myself here. First we need to see how 2008 unfolds. We don’t have much longer to wait.