SPRINGFIELD, MA (November 17, 2008)…Massachusetts residents are doubtful that the national economy will improve over the next 12 months, and three out of five say they will spend less money on gifts this holiday season, according to the latest survey from the Western New England College Polling Institute.
More than half of the 602 adults who responded to the telephone survey said they expect the national economy to stay about the same or get worse over the next 12 months. Ninety-five percent rated the economy as “fairly bad” or “very bad.” The poll, conducted November 6-13, has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percent.
“Given that the economy is the primary topic of discussion in the media, around the water cooler, and at home, it isn’t surprising people are concerned and treading cautiously,” said Denine Northrup, Ph.D., co-director of the Western New England College Polling Institute.
Residents also were pessimistic that their personal finances will improve any time soon. Twenty-eight (28) percent said they expected their personal financial position to get better over the next 12 months, while 56 percent said it would stay about the same and 15 percent said it would get worse.
That pessimism may be breeding caution about the upcoming holiday season. Sixty percent said they plan to spend less on gifts this year compared to last year, while 34 percent said they would spend the same amount and only 4 percent said they would spend more.
The outlook for holiday buying varied, however, by gender, age and income. Sixty-five percent of women said they would spend less, compared to 55 percent of men. Seventy-one percent of adults ages 30 to 49 said they would spend less, compared to 62 percent of adults ages 50 to 64 and 47 percent of adults 65 and older. Families with annual household incomes between $35,000 and $100,000 were more likely to say they would spend less compared to those with household incomes below $35,000 or above $100,000.
“As our awareness and concern due to uncertainty is heightened, individuals in the middle income bracket particularly are becoming much more cautious about overextending with their personal finances,” said Northrup, an associate professor of psychology at Western New England College.
Even with the gloomy outlook, residents expressed optimism that President-elect Barack Obama will be able to tackle the nation’s economic problems. Seventy-six percent of adults and 75 percent of registered voters said they were very or somewhat confident about Obama’s ability to make the right decisions about the economy.
Partisan divisions, however, still linger from the recent election. Among registered voters who identified themselves as Democrats, 94 percent said they were very or somewhat confident about Obama’s abilities, while the same was true for only 27 percent of Republican voters. Seventy-six percent of independent voters said they were very or somewhat confident that Obama would be able to make the right decisions about the economy.
The poll also found that Massachusetts residents are changing their spending habits in response to the economic downturn:
- Twenty-nine percent said they had delayed making a major purchase for their household, such as a computer or an appliance. That was the case for about one-third of those with annual household incomes below $100,000 per year, but was true for only 16 percent of those with household incomes of $100,000 or more.
- Twenty-three percent said they had delayed or canceled plans to buy a new car.
- Twenty-eight percent said they had delayed or canceled buying a home or making home improvements.
- More than half – 53 percent of respondents – said they were eating at restaurants less frequently, and the same was true for about two-thirds of those with household incomes between $35,000 and $100,000.
- Fifty-eight percent said they have changed the way their money is saved or invested. Men were more likely than women to alter their savings or investment strategies (63 percent to 54 percent). Nearly two-thirds of residents with household incomes of $100,000 or higher said they have changed how they save or invest their money.
The Western New England College Polling Institute conducted telephone interviews with 602 adults ages 18 and older drawn from across Massachusetts using random-digit-dialing November 6-13. The sample yielded 548 adults who said they were registered to vote in Massachusetts. Unless otherwise noted, figures cited are based on the statewide sample of all adults. The data were weighted to reflect the adult population of Massachusetts by gender, race and age. Complete results of the poll are available online at www.wnec.edu/news.
Established in 2005, the Western New England College Polling Institute conducts research on issues of importance to Massachusetts residents and communities. The Institute provides the College’s faculty and students with valuable opportunities to participate in public opinion research.
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